Surface Ripples

Nothing is Certain but Death and Taxes?

 The origin of the phrase is generally attributed to Benjamin Franklin. In a letter written to Jean-Baptiste Le Roy in 1789, Franklin says: “Our new Constitution is now established and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” However, an even earlier version of this sentiment was written by Daniel Defoe in his Political History of the Devil, 1726: “Things as certain as death and taxes, can be more firmly believ’d.” (source: grammarist.com)

Our friends forgot to add one more thing: unpredictability.  Some would encapsulate this as ‘change’, but unpredictability is what forces it.  As the world evolves, nations grow, technology improves and knowledge increases, we’re capable of changing more of what goes on in our lives.  We spend the rest of the time catching up.  

Remember how the first airline hijacking back in 1948 changed airline travel?  Between 1929-1957 there were fewer than 20 hijackings, but from 1958-1967 this increased to roughly 40.  1968-1972 saw 326.  The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 began to transform air travel in waves. In the years that followed each fresh plot exposed an unforeseen weakness that required a new rule. First came locked cockpit doors, more armed air marshals and bans on sharp objects. Later, suspicion fell on bottles of liquid, shoes and laptops. Flying hasn’t returned to ‘normal’, nor has it established a new routine.  

Major technological shifts that used to take hundreds of years or (at least) decades to spread around the world (e.g., the printing press, telegraph, telephone and television) now become ‘normal’ in just a few years.  20 years ago, modern smartphones did not exist. Today more than half the world’s population carries at least one. 

Any leader who thinks their organisation or industry is immune to the increasing pace of change is unlikely to last long.  Their problem is how to predict, react and cope?  Just look at the arrival of COVID-19, where things are changing daily.   

Change isn’t all bad, when we consider some of the benefits that come with today’s predictable unpredictability. Many people have always liked to work from home and now it’s considered part of ‘the new normal’.  Remote services can be cheaper and more accessible and will grow.  Other advances will occur in diagnostic techniques and (hopefully) the reduction of global warming.   

Leaders need to learn to cope with this.

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With a wealth of international experience in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Crisis Management, Customer Care, Financial, Leadership, Productivity, Risk, Strategy

posted by William Martin @ 10:23