Friday 17 July 2020

Effects of COVID - 19: Other Problems

I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.  There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others.  Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …

The time for “blame games” and recriminations will come later; let’s first learn from the different types of “fallout” we’ve seen.  My first article was on “Social Fallout”.  After that I wrote about “Supply Chain Fallout”.  Travel & Tourism came next, followed by a closer look at the Garment Industry.  Then Leadership & Administration, followed by  IT and Security implications.  Academic fallout came next, then Economic fallout.  Another aspect that would have impacted many was the effect on cities.  I looked at payments and banking more recently and felt that the time had come to see what other problems may have arisen.

Many problems have centred around discrimination and fear: in Libreville in Gabon, landlords have evicted tenants from homes, nurses have been abandoned by their husbands, doctors testing people have been discriminated against.  Cameroon has seen nurses also abandoned by husbands and driven out of their homes as they were working in COVID units.  Discrimination against health workers has also been seen in the UK.  Other cases of discrimination – particularly against Africans in China – have been reported in the press.

In the UK, tracking apps are reported as not functioning at peak efficiency.  Large numbers of personnel have been needed to support contact tracing, whilst privacy concerns loom over the concept of tracking (where’s the line between “surveillance” and “oppression”?). The result: low participation rates in some areas and a refusal to obey social distancing or wear a mask.

Concerning tracking apps, Swiss epidemiologist Marcel Saurel has been quoted as saying that all COVID-19 apps so far are fundamentally broken because they collect too much irrelevant information and don’t work well with Android and iPhone OS…

On the subject of masks, apparently wearing masks apparently scares people in Somalia (not wearing them should!).

The news outlet Investvine pointed out in April that  the “petrodollar system” sustains the US dollar as the global reserve currency, with US financial markets as a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows.  What happens is that US dollars earned from oil exports are used to buy investments in the US, meaning that the US has been able to issue dollar denominated assets (e.g. Treasury Bills) at low rates of interest, thus promoting growth without inflationary pressure.  If the flow of recycled petrodollars evaporates for any sustained period (as is likely) due to low oil prices caused by falling demand, along with China’s surplus of dollars slowing down due to lower exports, it means a sharp reduction of liquidity for American capital markets just when the US needs to spend in order to prop up its economy.  

A final result is, of course, the depressing number of businesses cutting hiring, putting workers on furlough or (worse) making them redundant as well as filing for bankruptcy.


I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website  provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

  

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