Wednesday 29 April 2009

Swine Flu

It's still too early to know whether we have a genuine pandemic on our hands or whether we are seeing the usual media storm in a teacup with swine flu. Yes, some people have become infected, and tragically there have been deaths, but not all attributable to swine flu (yet). A sense of perspective is needed here and also some planning in case things get out of hand. The last time I did a plan for a pandemic was during the bird flu scare of 2006, and much of what I did there is relevant here.

You have a duty as a responsible business partner and employer. Get this right, and your business will benefit from your foresight. Get medical and legal advice as to your obligations.

The first thing is to know your enemy - so understand what Swine Flu is, how it spreads, what the current situation is and what precations to take. Wikipedia gives a good start here, as well as the UK government where you can find up to date information. The NHS also provides useful advice and answers to questions.

You should also speak to your local GP or company medical adviser. Basically if you have any doubts, get checked up, particularly if you have recently been abroad or in contact with someone who has. The good news at the moment is that we are only seeing mild discomfort occurring and that this can be treated successfully if caught early enough.

The problem with pandemics is that transmission of the disease often occurs before the carrier manifests any visible symptoms. They are thus likely to have infected others before they realise that they themselves are infected.

If things get serious, then you need to think about how this impacts your business and will need to develop plans. Remember that not only your staff will be impacted, but also your suppliers, buyers and others with whom you have to interact on a daily basis. This includes cleaning, maintenance, electrical contractors and even the forces of law and order and the health services. Will those on whom you depend have planned as well as you? If they haven't, what does this mean for you? Which vital services/supplies do you need to secure?

Be ready to lose staff who either contract the flu, who have to quarantine themselves because they may have been exposed to others with the flu, or who have to care for family members (children, partners, parents, etc). What are the vital areas that have to be manned? What is the minimum number of staff you need? Can people cover for each other? Which key staff need to be covered? Which staff are single parents and therefore possibly more at risk of being absent for longer? How long will they have to be out before they are "safe" again? Your GP/company medical advisor should be able to help here.

Can your business be shut down for up to two weeks without loss? If you are self-employed and need to work, will your clients want you to delay projects whilst they develop plans (or indeed, shut down themselves or ban all non-essential outsiders)? How much cash do you need to survive for two weeks (and how much do you have)? Assume that you will need to pay salaries, VAT, taxes, rent, etc as normal. Does your business rely on customers coming in to buy (e.g. supermarkets, department stores, restaurants)? How will you cope and what will you do to minimise risk? Again, speak to your GP. You may have to consider being forcibly shut down if the health authorities feel this is necessary - can you survive?

I will be writing more about how to look at the other parts of your business and basic hygiene precautions.

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