Surface Ripples

What Ukraine Has Taught Us

People and world governments have been shocked by Russia’s invasion of The Ukraine.  Another refugee crisis, another diplomatic crisis, international repercussions, re-aligned relationships, a squeeze on the world economy and markets are some of the results.

Could we have ‘seen this coming?’  In hindsight, maybe.  The signs were (amongst others) an increasingly paranoid and aggressive president of Russia, a Western fixation on the right to self-determination, an increasingly rambunctious neighbour leaning to the West on Russia’s border, and a desire to secure that border.

Equally, the signs that a crisis might be averted were Russia’s seeming willingness to engage in finding a ‘diplomatic solution’, increased shipments of arms to the Ukraine, and perhaps a wistful feeling of ‘He wouldn’t, would he?’ amongst those who didn’t want a war.  

The lessons: 

• Russia’s leader still resents what happened to the greatness of the Soviet Union in the 90s;
• He’s still operating on a narrative that Russia’s borders are insecure;
• He feels NATO is slowly encroaching on territory that, ‘rightfully’ belongs to Russia;
• He has the power to exert his will;
• He will do whatever it takes to stay in power.

This is a man who has crushed all opposition, imprisoned and murdered political opponents.  In the narrative he has created, this is all necessary for Russia’s return to greatness.  In the days of the Cold War, the world respected (and even feared?) Russia.  This position has ow been supplanted, to an extent, by what Russia used to perceive as an upstart rival: China.

China has achieved by economic means what the USSR failed to achieve by political and militarily ones.  Both have many similarities, but the key difference is how China has understood and exploited the power of the world’s markets to achieve its ends.  Both are similar in that they are:

• Repressive regimes where dissent is not tolerated;
• Willing to use force to quell disagreement or dissent;
• Resentful of intrusion into their ‘domestic politics’ (but don’t seem to mind interfering in others’ – ask Australia and Taiwan);
• Willing to invade territories to secure their interests.

The ‘Ukraine story’, if nothing else, has taught the world that it has lapsed into a dangerous false sense of security.  A sad reminder still of ‘si vis pacem, para bellum’ (‘If you desire peace, prepare for war,’ Publius Vegetius Renatus, De Re Militari)? 

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With a wealth of international experience in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Crisis Management, Leadership, Strategy

posted by William Martin @ 09:39