Effects of COVID-19: Conclusions (1)
I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others. Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …
The time for “blame games” and recriminations will come later; let’s first learn from the different types of “fallout” we’ve seen. My first article was on “Social Fallout”. After that I wrote about “Supply Chain Fallout”. Travel & Tourism came next, followed by a closer look at the Garment Industry. Then Leadership & Administration, followed by IT and Security implications. Academic fallout came next, then Economic fallout. Another aspect that would have impacted many was the effect on cities. I looked at payments and banking more recently and then other problems. I then looked at what, if any, positive results had been seen.
There’s little more to say. The virus continues to spread, although several promising-looking cures have appeared. As at the time of writing, total cases of global infection were 16,628,030, with 655,845 deaths (a mortality rate of 3.94% and 10,217,285 recoveries (61.45%). Against this, different countries experienced wildly different results. The USA, for example, had a mortality rate of 3.39%; the UK, 15.25%; China (where it’s all supposed to have started, 5.52%); Brunei, where I live and work, 2.13%.
COVID-19 has resulted in a health, social and economic crisis of gargantuan proportions. The effects will take a long time to disappear, (assuming they ever do completely). We hear that this will be “with us for life”, and that a “new normal” is emerging. Countries that rely on tourism have seen their economies devastated and job losses in the thousands as hotels, restaurants and resorts close. Travel may change for ever with higher prices for air tickets, masks to be worn, blood/virus tests pre-departure and other precautions. Scenes at airports will be more reminiscent of the aftermath of 9/11, but we need a “wholesale” rather than “piecemeal” approach” as we are seeing at the moment.
Business travel may well never recover to pre-COVID-19 levels. The cost savings of Zoom conferencing and savings on rents and utilities will mean that companies think more than twice about how necessary that “business trip” really is. We will see a different way of working - more “remote” activity and (so I hear) employers offering working-from-home as part of the “package”. This also means potential business for any business that specialises in “home office set ups”.
With fewer staff in buildings at a time due to social distancing, demand for office space will reduce (some have predicted by up to 65%). Rents will fall, and “downtown” areas in some parts of the world will resemble more the “ghost towns” of a dystopian future.
In my next post, I'll finish off and suggest where we should look to go in the future.
I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management. I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services. For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.
Labels: Crisis Management, Financial, Leadership, Social
posted by William Martin @ 16:18
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