Wednesday 18 March 2020

How Long Can You Survive?

When I was a very young child (in the early 60s), my father was posted to a country where riots were common and a very real danger to personal safety existed.  We had been advised to keep two weeks’ worth of supplies (that being the time estimated for the riots to either die out or be put down by the local security forces) and the means to cook them in the house.  Since then, my parents always maintained a two-week supply of food wherever we lived.

This was all pretty basic, but they listened to advice and learnt from it.  When storms in the UK in 1987 brought three trees down across our access road, we had enough to eat (and could cook on a simple 2-ring gas camping stove) until the trees could be cleared.  We had to wait another 10 days for power and phone to come back online, but we didn’t starve, panic or suffer.

With the current pandemic, we’ve seen videos of people fighting over toilet paper and other supplies in supermarkets, many of which have now run out now run out of certain supplies due to “panic buying”.  It made me wonder how long people could manage in our modern “convenient” world.  We’re so used to having water at the turn of a tap, electricity at the flip of a switch, broadband internet and online ordering of groceries delivered to our doorstep and “telephone takeaway” that we’ve forgotten how to plan for ourselves.  According to a report I read some time ago, the average American family has enough food in the house to last only three days, so the USA is theoretically three days from social unrest in the event of a disaster...

Now, how long could our businesses survive in the event of a prolonged downturn where no customers came in or ordered online (or did, but orders couldn’t be delivered due to a shortage of delivery drivers)?  What does our business need to make it work?  

The key ingredients to successful continuity are: Predict, Plan, Prepare, Perform, Protect

Predict:
What might happen?  How likely is it?

Plan:
Have plans ready for predicted disasters.  Update them regularly.  Remember, there could be different types of disaster – each needs a different plan.  These will revolve mainly around:

People:
The most important part of our business.  They are the ones who deliver supplies, buy our goods and services, and make our business run.  What would if, say, only 50% of staff could make it in?  How do we communicate with them?  What if they need to care for family members?

Parts (Supplies):
What equipment or supplies do we need in these cases?  Is it available?  Will it perish/expire?  How quickly could we obtain more?  Can we use technology (e.g. video conferencing) to manage meetings, etc?  Is there any other technology out there that we could use?

Providers (Utilities, Hospitals, Police, Fire Brigade, Banks, Lawyers, etc):
Can we rely on all our usual service providers?  For how long?  How long can we manage without them?  Do they have backup plans?

Prepare (and Practice):
There’s no use in having a plan and preparations if we don’t practice to see what works and what doesn’t.  We don’t want to close down the business for a full day, but what would it be like if, say, only 50% of staff could make it in?  What if circumstances (e.g. a curfew, etc) prevented them from leaving the workplace for at least 1 might (a bit extreme perhaps, but we never know…)

Perform:
If something happens, that’s when we put our plans into action.  

If we’re forced to stay at home, as we were from time to time in the country I mentioned, how much of the above applies to us?  Can we survive for (say) two weeks on our own stocks?

It’s never too late to prepare.  Remember the old saying: “Proper Planning Prevents Poor Performance”.

I have spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website  provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610

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