Surface Ripples

How Can We Change (2)?

COVID-19 has been the first truly global pandemic for 100 years.  Those who experienced the “Spanish ‘flu” of 1918 – 1920 have all passed away.  Closely related was the 2009 “Swine Flu” pandemic, but this was easier to spot as those who had it displayed symptoms immediately.  The current virus appears to spread from close physical proximity and, unlike the previous SARS virus of 2003, spreads easily, faster and those infected show no symptoms whilst at their most contagious.  

The virus is still with us and shows no signs of abating soon.  Governments have tried “lockdowns”, “circuit-breakers”, “self-isolation” and testing at all levels.  Inbound travellers from overseas are being asked to self-quarantine for up to 14 days, yet still the virus spreads.

I previously looked at why change may not be as easy as we think.  The focus in this post will be on where I feel changes will come.  

So far, most of the ways that the pandemic has spread have all been to do with transmission through proximity and/or touch.  The simple answer (stop all movement and contact) doesn’t work.  What we can do is control and adapt how we behave.

Physical separation and testing become more important, particularly for more “vulnerable groups”.  Many changes will revolve around this.

We’ve seen how services like Zoom enable business meetings, or online shopping facilitates “remote” purchase and delivery of groceries and other items.  Where possible, these will need to increase, meaning that more “high street” stores could disappear, leading to reduced municipality income from quieter shopping centres, fewer outlets paying rents and increased unemployment in the retail sector.  Online services and deliveries will grow; the nature of business and towns may change; businesses will have to adapt to working “from a distance”.

Public transport will change.  We’ll still need it; how we use it will be different.  “Social distancing” rules will be necessary, meaning fewer passengers and lower fare income.  This has particularly impacted the airline, hotel and tourist industries.  Any kind of travel will be restrictive.  

In short, we’re going to have to be a lot less “social” (and live with it) until a permanent cure is found (if ever).  If not, we’ll have to watch how we “socialise”, when and with whom.

Businesses will need to be able to work with fewer staff at short notice.  There are suggestions that “work from home” may become a standard part of compensation (think of the savings on office space and costs!)   

Governments need to review policies.  Some failed to take COVID seriously.  Many weren’t prepared for an outbreak as virulent as this.  They will need to be more transparent much earlier, rather than trying to hide it until it’s too late.  “Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once”(The Economist Magazine, 04 July 2020).  Small wonder they find it difficult to introduce and enforce new laws in democracies where gathering in large numbers is seen as a fundamental right.

Economies and industries that depend heavily on customers being physically present (e.g. travel, tourism, hospitality and entertainment/events) account for significant contributions to many economies (Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in ASEAN spring to mind).  How can governments re-structure these and re-train the millions who have lost/will lose their jobs (up to 46 million in the global travel industry in total forecast by the aviation industry, 5 million in aviation alone)?  

As The Economist Magazine commented, ... “in retrospect, SARS was much easier for airlines to manage than COVID-19. SARS showed symptoms immediately and could be detected with temperature checks at airports. It was not initially contagious; those infected could be isolated before they spread it to others. COVID-19, in contrast, shows no symptoms for up to two weeks after infection, a period in which it is contagious. No wonder experts soon found that airline travel was the primary means by which the disease spread around the world.”  (“Peak Plane”, 04 July 2020). 

People will have to be more accountable for their own behaviour.  Too many waited for “government” to tell them what to do, and then, when they didn’t like it, ignored the request, spreading the virus further.  Being an adult means being responsible to oneself and to society at large.  Inevitably, the buck stops with us.

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website  provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Crisis Management, Leadership, Risk, Social

posted by William Martin @ 10:08