Surface Ripples

Effects of COVID-19: Conclusions (2)

I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.  There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others.  Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …

The time for “blame games” and recriminations will come later; let’s first learn from the different types of “fallout” we’ve seen.  My first article was on “Social Fallout”.  After that I wrote about “Supply Chain Fallout”.  Travel & Tourism came next, followed by a closer look at the Garment Industry.  Then Leadership & Administration, followed by  IT and Security implications.  Academic fallout came next, then Economic fallout.  Another aspect that would have impacted many was the effect on cities.  I looked at payments and banking more recently and then other problems.  I then looked at  what, if any, positive results had been seen.  Last week, I started my conclusions, so we’ll call a close here.

Continuing the theme of work where I left off last week, Business Continuity Plans will have to consider pandemics more seriously, especially as there are warnings of more “waves” of COVID to come.  

On the subject of cities and towns (where many of us work), it’s become clear that few are “designed” for social distancing.   Urban planning will change, building regulations may require “decontamination zones” and isolation areas. “one-way” pedestrian systems may come into force for good.      

Whether the world economy will recover to pre-COVID-19 levels is up for debate.  Chances are low.  Global supply chains and routes will no longer centre on China.  Concentrating one’s strategic supply of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other vital supplies in one country that may itself fall prey to a highly contagious virus, or has a history of abusing its power,  is not the best idea (whatever the cost saving).  The push of globalisation “took jobs away”, but COVID and a resulting push for “regionalisation” (and even localisation) of strategic supplies are likely to see them come back, with the consequent impact on prices, jobs, economies, suppliers & buyers.

Health services are being told to “gear up” for another round as the winter season comes around later this year.  I suspect also that, in future, governments will react faster to threats of a virus coming to their shores thanks to the miracle of modern air travel.  Airports and all points of entry will see their screening capabilities “beefed up”.  As this happens, so too will the use of IT and “big data” - tracking apps, along with the inevitable concerns about just who has access to location data…

China will face world scrutiny and (possibly) sanctions.  This has already started happening and a newly assertive China is pushing back – sometimes not so subtly.     

The final conclusion?  Learn from every crisis and take action.  Vietnam learnt from the SARS outbreak and successfully controlled things (mostly).  We can’t expect democratic governments to react quickly, hamstrung as they are by legislative checks and balances.  The UK dithered and now has one of the highest mortality rates in the world, coming in at 12^th place (down from fifth).  

In the US where people consider it a constitutional right to increase their risk of contracting the virus by not wearing masks coupled with too-early easing of movement restrictions, we’re seeing an exponential increase in infections.  The country now has the world’s highest infection and deaths.

The EU has just agreed (after much internal wrangling) an EUR750billion rescue fund for economies devastated by the virus.  Other regions and economic blocs won’t be so lucky and will rely on World Bank or IMF largesse with the inevitable harsh conditions.  

On a personal level, we can all take action without waiting for governments to help or to tell us what to do.  If we look at any natural disaster (hurricane, mudslide, earthquake, etc), we see that state support and guidance are usually slow to come (sometimes for reasons beyond the government’s control) and are often insufficient when they do.  Being sensible (social distancing, proper hygiene, wearing masks, having supplies of food at home to weather a certain number of days “inside”) all contribute.  Have the “preppers” actually got a point here?   

Sadly, the “developed” world has grown complacent over the years.  Mother Nature has given everyone a salutary reminder of who’s really in charge.  Let’s not forget.

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website  provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Crisis Management, Leadership, Risk, Social, Teamwork

posted by William Martin @ 08:58