Surface Ripples

Plan (for the Worst)

What can go wrong will go wrong – and at the worst possible moment.

Many people will have heard the above saying (known as “Murphy’s Law”) in some form or another.  Fewer will have heard of Flannagan’s Law (“Murphy was an optimist”) …

The US Navy Special Forces have a number of guiding mottos:

• One is none - always have a backup (whether it's a gun, a helicopter or a plan).
• Everything that can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible moment. Prepare for the unexpected. (Sound familiar?)
• The men must not only survive the plan, the plan must survive the blunders of men. 

When we plan, we have a tendency to optimism – that things will  go the way we planned.  As many can testify, this is not always the case.  Our word is becoming more complex, more information is available, and sudden disasters can upset things completely.  As Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke observed, “No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy.”

At this stage, people may ask, why bother to plan?  The point is, we should expect things to happen and/or go wrong.  Often, we’re planning with little time, information for a number of different scenarios.  The key is to build in flexibility.  This can be done in a number of ways:

Allow for things to change:

New information may come in as time passes, allowing us to change plans or re-direct efforts.  We need to allow for this.

Expect Obstacles and Delays:

Plans are about general direction, not so much about the exact route to get there.  Imagine you set off in your car to go somewhere and you encounter a traffic jam.  If you can, you’ll turn off that road and go another way.  You may reach your destination later, but you’ll still get there.

Build in Contingencies:

Accept you may need extra time/money/staff/equipment (or all four).  Very few projects ever come in on time and on budget.  If they do, what usually suffers is quality.  

Planning for the worst means we can:

• Expect it;
• Deal with it;
• Overcome it. 

As we gain experience in planning for the worst, it becomes “second nature”, easier to do and problems run less risk of escalating into crises. 

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website  provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Career, Crisis Management, Leadership, Productivity, Strategy

posted by William Martin @ 14:46