Surface Ripples

Will Inequalities Grow?

 We are now into just over a year since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, and still nations are struggling to contain it.  In some, vaccines are now available, and infections and deaths are, mercifully, falling.  Others, however, still wait deliveries of both PPE and vaccines. 

• Several areas vital to a country’s growth may turn into major problems for government: Education
• Production
• Administration
• Business decline

Let’s start with education.

Schools have been forced to close and pupils to study from home online.  For those in countries where there is robust and cheap internet access, and assuming they have computers at home, this is not an issue.  However, those without internet access or access to computers are going to “fall behind” and be at an educational disadvantage compared to their relatively wealthier and/or better equipped counterparts.  We will see a widening education gap and associated  psycho-social effects in students.  As a result, will employers find more applicants with lower educational achievement results in the years to come?  Will mental health issues show a rise?

On the production front, we again have two groups: 

1. Those whose job allows them to work from home
2. Those who have to be on site

The first group could be analysts, relationship managers, and certain categories of call centre worker (if calls and information can be switched through to their home and they have robust internet access). 

The second includes manual workers: assembly lines, packaging plants, garment factory workers, office cleaners, waste disposal, port workers, tour guides, hotel workers, government workers issuing permits/licences/visas, etc and those working in “vital retail businesses” (e.g., healthcare, supermarkets, pharmacies).  Some of these may rely on that job to generate their family’s only income to put food on the table.

The second category will be more at risk of transmission/infection, leading to a slowdown in productivity and profitability for the business concerned.  In the longer-term, businesses may review their operations to see whether increased automation is a way forward, leading to potentially higher unemployment.   

For the final area of business decline, if "lockdown rules" prevent people from shopping for all bu the "essentials",  will we see a decline in the number of businesses large and small in our economy.  In some cases, this has already happened, with the travel and hospitality industries severely curtailed.

The simple answer going forward seems to be vaccination of “vital” populations:  healthcare workers, school-age children, their teachers/lecturers and the on-site” workforce to ensure the continuing viability of a country’s economy and administration, along with a sufficient stream of suitably educated people to run it. This is what at least one country has chosen to do, in direct contrast to others who have targeted the vaccine at “vulnerable” populations (the elderly, those with severe health conditions as an example).

Am I advocating ignoring the elderly or those with severe health conditions?  No, but I am asking where priorities should lie in such situations.  We will experience other (and perhaps more deadly) pandemics and need to decide how to handle them.  In such cases, the first in line for vaccination may not be the same groups as during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

I would certainly advocate that mechanisms for dealing with the next plague be more robust, that stocks of PPE for vital health workers be sufficient and that supplies don’t depend on nations who have their own “problems to deal with”…

I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With a wealth of international experience in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management.  I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services.  For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.

Labels: Crisis Management, Customer Care, Leadership, Productivity, Strategy, Teamwork

posted by William Martin @ 15:07