Effects of COVID-19: Conclusions (1)
I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others. Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …
There’s little more to say. The virus continues to spread, although several promising-looking cures have appeared. As at the time of writing, total cases of global infection were 16,628,030, with 655,845 deaths (a mortality rate of 3.94% and 10,217,285 recoveries (61.45%). Against this, different countries experienced wildly different results. The USA, for example, had a mortality rate of 3.39%; the UK, 15.25%; China (where it’s all supposed to have started, 5.52%); Brunei, where I live and work, 2.13%.
COVID-19 has resulted in a health, social and economic crisis of gargantuan proportions. The effects will take a long time to disappear, (assuming they ever do completely). We hear that this will be “with us for life”, and that a “new normal” is emerging. Countries that rely on tourism have seen their economies devastated and job losses in the thousands as hotels, restaurants and resorts close. Travel may change for ever with higher prices for air tickets, masks to be worn, blood/virus tests pre-departure and other precautions. Scenes at airports will be more reminiscent of the aftermath of 9/11, but we need a “wholesale” rather than “piecemeal” approach” as we are seeing at the moment.
Business travel may well never recover to pre-COVID-19 levels. The cost savings of Zoom conferencing and savings on rents and utilities will mean that companies think more than twice about how necessary that “business trip” really is. We will see a different way of working - more “remote” activity and (so I hear) employers offering working-from-home as part of the “package”. This also means potential business for any business that specialises in “home office set ups”.
With fewer staff in buildings at a time due to social distancing, demand for office space will reduce (some have predicted by up to 65%). Rents will fall, and “downtown” areas in some parts of the world will resemble more the “ghost towns” of a dystopian future.
In my next post, I'll finish off and suggest where we should look to go in the future.
I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management. I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services. For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.
Labels: Crisis Management, Financial, Leadership, Social
Effects of COVID-19: Unexpected Benefits
I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others. Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …
Thailand has seen a 60% reduction in road accidents. Japan and India have also reported 20% and 90% lower fatal road accidents respectively, whist Malaysia has reported a drop as well (the flip side is that coffin makers have seen business decline).
Others, such as Vietnam, have seen crime rates fall as people observe social distancing. The Indian state of Kerala reports rape is down.
In Hong Kong, the ‘flu season ended 9 weeks early (some good news for them, given the uncertainty currently faced).
Another decline has been global pollution due to the shutting-down of factories and the fact that may airlines have grounded their aircraft. One news source stated that global daily consumption of oil in April would fall by an estimated 15 million to 20 million barrels a day against what it was a year ago. China, a major pollution centre, has estimated it has seen 12,000 cardio-vascular deaths averted.
Although reports are mixed, many communities have become closer in adversity. People are helping each other, particularly those most “at risk” of catching the virus.
Online ordering and delivery services are booming. Car hire and ride-hailing businesses have switched to delivering essential supplies to those who want to self-isolate.
We may become less wasteful and more grateful for what we have. Increased pressure on employers to allow working from home as a “standard” part of compensation packages may see people spending more time with their families, wasting less time commuting (and thus decreasing congestion and pollution). The world will change for the better in many ways.
I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management. I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services. For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.
Labels: Crisis Management, Leadership, Social
Effects of COVID - 19: Other Problems
I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others. Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …
Many problems have centred around discrimination and fear: in Libreville in Gabon, landlords have evicted tenants from homes, nurses have been abandoned by their husbands, doctors testing people have been discriminated against. Cameroon has seen nurses also abandoned by husbands and driven out of their homes as they were working in COVID units. Discrimination against health workers has also been seen in the UK. Other cases of discrimination – particularly against Africans in China – have been reported in the press.
In the UK, tracking apps are reported as not functioning at peak efficiency. Large numbers of personnel have been needed to support contact tracing, whilst privacy concerns loom over the concept of tracking (where’s the line between “surveillance” and “oppression”?). The result: low participation rates in some areas and a refusal to obey social distancing or wear a mask.
Concerning tracking apps, Swiss epidemiologist Marcel Saurel has been quoted as saying that all COVID-19 apps so far are fundamentally broken because they collect too much irrelevant information and don’t work well with Android and iPhone OS…
On the subject of masks, apparently wearing masks apparently scares people in Somalia (not wearing them should!).
The news outlet Investvine pointed out in April that the “petrodollar system” sustains the US dollar as the global reserve currency, with US financial markets as a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows. What happens is that US dollars earned from oil exports are used to buy investments in the US, meaning that the US has been able to issue dollar denominated assets (e.g. Treasury Bills) at low rates of interest, thus promoting growth without inflationary pressure. If the flow of recycled petrodollars evaporates for any sustained period (as is likely) due to low oil prices caused by falling demand, along with China’s surplus of dollars slowing down due to lower exports, it means a sharp reduction of liquidity for American capital markets just when the US needs to spend in order to prop up its economy.
A final result is, of course, the depressing number of businesses cutting hiring, putting workers on furlough or (worse) making them redundant as well as filing for bankruptcy.
I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management. I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services. For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.
Labels: Crisis Management, Leadership, Social
Effects of COVID-19: Payments and Banking
I’m watching and learning from global reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no doubt that some countries have handled it better than others. Some have also had some “nasty surprises” …
This week, I’m looking at another critical (and often-overlooked) aspect of life: banking (the ability to make and receive payments and store cash). We think little about the banking system: our salary (if we’re lucky enough to earn one) appears at a predictable time of month, our standing instructions or direct debits are paid out, and we’re able to use the rest as we wish.
One of the reasons that the banks were bailed out during the global financial crisis of 2008 – 2009 (to the misguided fury of those who saw them as the cause) was that it was the banks that ensured that the billions of dollars, pounds, euros, yen and other currencies continued to speed around the world. This meant that exporters were paid for their goods, workers were paid their salaries and those in need received their social security payments. Close the banks and all that stops. No payments to exporters, no salaries to workers, no social security payments.
Fast-forward to 2020 and COVID-19. The world has seen a boom in e-commerce and the use of digital banking. Amazon has had to delay “non-essential” purchases in order to handle the explosion of orders for Personal Protective Equipment and vital health supplies.
The Philippines (for example) is seeing an increase in “digital-only” banks as people make more use of online banking for social-distancing purposes. The main banks in terms of assets and branch networks may start adjusting their services more towards digital ones for the same reasons. Just as with non-bank businesses shifting more to a “work remotely” paradigm, so banks may well reduce their “bricks-and-mortar” operations to ensure customer and staff safety as well as responding to changing demand.
You might think that this would result in an increase in ATM usage. Again, the Philippines claim to have seen a 25% decrease in volumes (who wants to touch ATM keys that an infected person may have touched?)
“Internet Banking” services are already common. Usage will increase as well as other services linked into a “hands-free” world. We will go into physical bank premises less frequently than before, whilst online ordering will become more prevalent. Traditional “cashier” bank jobs will all but disappear, to be replaced by others in processing, programming and investigations.
We should also expect cashless payments to become more sophisticated, prevalent and user-friendly. Even the smallest street vendor will soon have low (or no) cost cashless payment ability. This is where current offerings simply do not yet meet needs.
I’ve spent more than half my life delivering change in different world markets from the most developed to “emerging” economies. With more than 20 years in international financial services around the world running different operations and lending businesses, I started my own Consultancy to provide solutions for improving performance, productivity and risk management. I work with individuals, small businesses, charities, quoted companies and academic institutions across the world. An international speaker, trainer, author and fund-raiser, I can be contacted by email. My website provides a full picture of my portfolio of services. For strategic questions that you should be asking yourself, follow me at @wkm610.
Labels: Crisis Management, Customer Care, Financial
